The
instability of some of the “Arab Spring” countries in the Middle East shares
some alarming characteristics with certain theories of genocide and ethnic
cleaning we have discussed in class. In particular,
Weitz puts forward arguments that are relevant to the current political
situation in countries such as Egypt, Libya and Syria. For example, Weitz argued that revolutionary
regimes that seized state power were more likely to look for extreme ways to
maintain that power; the military junta that currently rules Egypt came into power because
of the revolution, and has already suspended the constitution and only
partially lifted the state of emergency in the country. It remains to be seen whether they will
actually step down following the parliamentary elections in June. Furthermore, Weitz identified race
as a primary aspect of many mass murders during the 20th century,
and as this report shows, the Libyan freedom fighters weren't immune to racial brutality as they fought to overthrow Gaddafi.
When
thinking about the current state of the “Arab Spring” countries, it is difficult
to predict the direction the new regimes will head in because the majority of
the new governments are still in a transitional phase. However, some countries are already showing signs
of extremism and similarities with the genocidal governments Weitz
described, as mention above. Even if Nazi Germany and Pol Pot’s
Cambodia seem like products of 20th century ideologies and historical
factors that are irrelevant for the 2011-12 Middle East, one need only look
back a little over a decade to find a much closer worst-case analogy. In 1996, after having emerged victorious in the
Afghan Civil War, the Taliban took advantage of an already unstable country by
consolidating their power and imposing an incredibly strict interpretation of
Sharia law. For five years, they committed mass murder and de-humanized women, while imposing a totalitarian regime that
ruled through terror.
The conditions in Afghanistan that
led to the rise of the Taliban were more akin to Germany after WWI than present
day Egypt or Syria. That being said, there
are enough similarities between the situations in the Middle East, Taliban
Afghanistan and the traits Weitz discusses in his article that the region
warrants a sustained watch, and if need be pressure, by the international
community rather than a “hope for the best” attitude. I believe that this is the best way to avoid
extreme governments and fulfill the democratic ideals that were at the heart of
the revolutions.
The Arab Spring is a great example of a contemporary region that is experiencing strife similar to those of genocidal nations in the past. As you said, the uprisings support Weitz's explanation of genocide concerning revolutions. These revolts allow for unstable situations in which many groups can be targeted as allying with the current corrupt regime. As Staub also pointed out, when people gather into groups for a cause like this they tend to find scapegoats to unite them under a common goal. This could easily apply to the Middle East.
ReplyDeleteThe Afghanistan example you gave is a good one, even if it's not technically genocide. If a dangerous group, like the Taliban in Afghanistan, achieved power in these new vacuums, more terror could occur. An analogy to Nazi Germany could be made or one to the Balkans in the 1990's. Countries like Libya are not ethnically homogeneous and certainly could find people to persecute if they needed such a scapegoat for unity.
A connection could also be made to Levene, who argues that external circumstances are important as well. The new rulers or governments, whatever they may be, would likely search for solutions to economic or social conflicts to increase their wealth or prosperity. Most of the nations have poverty issues. Certain ethnic groups could be targeted easily as problems with the purity of the state or selfishly hogging resources.
On the other hand, ethnic cleansing or genocide may be less likely in these nations for a couple reasons. These uprisings have received a decent amount of media attention from Western nations. If any western power were to find out, such as the US, the country runs a risk of repercussions that would be counter productive to the goal discussed above of economic relief. Countries like Egypt could lose aid payments from the US.
This Western attention of course did not prevent the modern Balkan genocides from occurring, but NATO and its nations have shown they're willing to involve themselves in the Arab conflicts if necessary. That would be the last thing any new revolutionary leader would want. Any such genocides, if they occur, would likely not be until the countries establish more stable leadership and Western concern wanes.